SCIPRESS FORMA
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Forma, Vol. 18 (No. 1), pp. 37-52, 2003
Original Paper

Spatial Models of Chytridiomycosis Dynamics in Frogs

Annette P. Tamino1* and Rafael P. Saldana2

1Biology Department, Ateneo de Manila University, Loyola Heights, Quezon City, Philippines
2Mathematics Department, Ateneo de Manila University, Loyola Heights, Quezon City, Philippines
*E-mail address: aptamino@admu.edu.ph

(Received October 27, 2002; Accepted April 15, 2003)

Keywords: Chytridiomycosis, Susceptible, Resistant, Cellular Automata, Epidemiology

Abstract. Simple application of rules governing a one-dimensional Cellular Automata (CA) demonstrated patterns of spread of Chytridiomycosis in three grid-based CA models. Simulation results show that the spread of Chytridiomycosis follow exponential patterns of infection rates for susceptible and resistant frog populations, while there was oscillatory behavior in the simulations for resistant populations and populations subjected to drug treatments. Susceptible populations died out, while resistant and treated populations recovered or stayed healthy. Stable oscillatory patterns in these models provide a quantitative description of the relationship between periods of recovery versus periods of sickness, two variables significantly measured in epidemiology. These CA-based models are useful aids in the analysis of behavior of emerging infectious disease (EID) in wildlife. Applications of theoretical biology in analyzing visualization models of complex systems presents an alternative in understanding population behavior so that possible scenarios that highlight these simulated transmission experiments may strengthen studies in disease control.


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